UK Diplomats Cautioned Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we judge that no African state would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.