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Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported Trump previously went for the progressive now. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So it’s not certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and residents supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the election we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.